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Confidence

The confidence converts the potential (as expected value of the production, P50) to the reference scenario (for example P75). The confidence is calculated from the standardized normal distribution with the p-value and standard deviation.

Name

Description

Unit

InfluencePresetting

Project Lifetime

The technical lifetime of a power plant is indicated in years. The site is producing the entered number of years starting at commissioning.

When the commissioning is for example on the 02.01.2013 with a lifetime of 20 year, the site is producing till 31.01.2033.

YearsTime series-

P-Value

Entry of the desired reference scenario for the exceeding probability of the production. For Example: "exceeding probability of 75%, P75", that means the production is in 25% of all cases worse than described.

PercentConfidence 50%

Standard Deviation

Standard deviation of long term mean electricity production according to the production assessment, for example "14%".

PercentConfidence

Wind: 15%

PV: 5%

Safety Reduction (Output)

The Safety Reduction is a calculated size. The Production amount gets affected by Standard Deviation and p-Value. With the help of these two values, you can calculate the Safety Reduction between the Reference Scenario (PN) and the P50 Scenario.

Safety Reduction = 1 - (Production PN / Production P50)

PercentProduction-

Calculation

The Confidence affects Production calculation.